Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 1.761180e-01 0.212000 0.250574 0.294832 0.343919 0.396421 0.456546
2025-03-02 1.150579e-01 0.159873 0.212288 0.276886 0.353164 0.439262 0.542689
2025-03-09 8.276246e-02 0.132620 0.195775 0.278639 0.381644 0.502873 0.653749
2025-03-16 5.621279e-02 0.105936 0.174589 0.270496 0.395640 0.548574 0.744841
2025-03-23 4.356277e-02 0.094966 0.171350 0.283506 0.435306 0.625949 0.875951
2025-03-30 3.080501e-02 0.080062 0.159667 0.282948 0.456156 0.679628 0.978835
2025-04-06 2.178485e-02 0.068396 0.150391 0.283912 0.477928 0.734203 1.083468
2025-04-13 1.609458e-02 0.060890 0.146124 0.291101 0.507753 0.799441 1.202614
2025-04-20 1.210582e-02 0.055341 0.143985 0.300772 0.540837 0.869313 1.328707
2025-04-27 8.869813e-03 0.050018 0.141167 0.308675 0.571131 0.935680 1.451047
2025-05-04 5.694899e-03 0.042763 0.133221 0.307114 0.586814 0.981868 1.547010
2025-05-11 3.867683e-03 0.038355 0.130001 0.312862 0.613222 1.043060 1.663624
2025-05-18 2.154684e-03 0.032430 0.122521 0.310811 0.628004 1.089028 1.761774
2025-05-25 7.766575e-04 0.024736 0.108869 0.296016 0.621726 1.104467 1.818307
2025-06-01 3.463730e-04 0.021656 0.105631 0.300075 0.645383 1.163265 1.935170
2025-06-08 6.315124e-05 0.017145 0.097086 0.292802 0.649906 1.193890 2.013110
2025-06-15 2.141317e-05 0.016433 0.099367 0.307265 0.690850 1.278874 2.168095
2025-06-22 4.866731e-08 0.013795 0.094804 0.307123 0.706980 1.327026 2.271706
2025-06-29 NaN 0.011684 0.091151 0.308401 0.725326 1.378589 2.380569
2025-07-06 NaN 0.010539 0.090551 0.316142 0.754936 1.447513 2.514786
2025-07-13 NaN 0.009769 0.091127 0.326438 0.789152 1.523789 2.660120
2025-07-20 NaN 0.008882 0.090904 0.334828 0.820120 1.595431 2.799436
2025-07-27 NaN 0.007239 0.086555 0.333213 0.833027 1.639313 2.899077